Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 11.233017 12.572503 14.102175 16.000154 18.323489 21.118292 24.804337
2024-10-20 9.218427 10.756870 12.637303 15.162326 18.560372 23.132476 30.061039
2024-10-27 8.026625 9.605937 11.619308 14.464660 18.549086 24.509906 34.586565
2024-11-03 8.019161 9.901384 12.431453 16.254466 22.251331 32.109266 51.971539
2024-11-10 7.699806 9.720006 12.541491 17.024541 24.566973 38.279464 70.886119
2024-11-17 7.026916 8.971523 11.741700 16.262051 24.165123 39.392333 79.571837
2024-11-24 6.627502 8.569893 11.399685 16.161616 24.875166 42.912021 97.587105
2024-12-01 6.256711 8.175332 11.022878 15.940624 25.301364 45.974413 117.817660
2024-12-08 5.976411 7.890259 10.783867 15.914551 26.090079 50.199709 148.823925
2024-12-15 5.774091 7.705096 10.681595 16.108768 27.364764 56.262700 201.974615
2024-12-22 5.472143 7.346699 10.268308 15.682487 27.213648 58.322697 239.572373
2024-12-29 5.276523 7.140254 10.087251 15.666849 27.983370 63.596937 323.999247
2025-01-05 4.956813 6.735585 9.569822 14.997820 27.215300 63.947842 374.032042
2025-01-12 4.647122 6.332218 9.030882 14.239064 26.117158 62.803869 407.587645
2025-01-19 4.384273 5.990589 8.576245 13.605103 25.228762 62.142991 452.955720
2025-01-26 4.506591 6.270730 9.208209 15.228387 30.508367 90.331311 2624.021840
2025-02-02 4.470985 6.289350 9.379915 15.923831 33.580748 114.148844 330190.917897
2025-02-09 4.247493 5.983616 8.942497 15.235246 32.358404 112.255035 NaN
2025-02-16 4.119370 5.832259 8.779425 15.144417 32.988502 123.315449 NaN
2025-02-23 3.985952 5.665701 8.577688 14.944455 33.231239 132.447001 NaN
2025-03-02 3.883440 5.546980 8.457897 14.920853 34.064754 148.026557 NaN
2025-03-09 3.811274 5.476662 8.424606 15.096611 35.652713 174.565996 NaN
2025-03-16 3.677923 5.295079 8.168136 14.710696 35.127412 179.230112 NaN